UN General Assembly. Peer review information Nature Food thanks Steffen Fritz, Juan Carlos Laso Bayas and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. The Landsat time-series data were transformed into multitemporal metrics that characterize land surface phenology. For each 4-year interval, we mapped an area as cropland if a growing crop was detected during any of these years. The cropland mapping was performed at 4-year intervals (20002003, 20042007, 20082011, 20122015 and 20162019). The word arable comes from the Latin word arabilis, meaning able to be plowed.. 3). Because the data reflect changes in reporting procedures as well as actual changes in land use, apparent trends should be interpreted cautiously. The United States and India have the most arable land in the world, though the two countries occasionally swap positions. UN General Assembly. The proportion of each land-use trajectory (within cropland gain and loss separately) was estimated from the sample and reported as the percentage of the total gain or loss along with its s.e.m. In turn, agriculture expansion and intensification threaten ecosystem functioning and lead to species extinction through habitat loss and fragmentation3,4,5,6. Flooding caused by surface water increase, water erosion and reservoir construction affected the cropland area on all continents (3% total reduction). Pesticide poisoning is common in developing countries. The highest NPP increase within stable croplands was found in South America (from 528g Cm2year1 in 2003 to 730g Cm2year1 in 2019, or by 25%). Ramankutty, N., Evan, A. T., Monfreda, C. & Foley, J. Global cropland expansion accelerated over the past two decades, with a near doubling of the annual expansion rate from 5.1MHa per year to 9.0Mha per year (Table 4). Central America & the Caribbean South America Metrics include selected ranks, inter-rank averages and amplitudes of surface reflectance and vegetation index values, and surface reflectance averages for selected land-surface phenology stages defined by vegetation indices (that is, surface reflectance for the maximum and minimum greenness periods). Cropland maps in Australia and New Zealand overestimate cropland area due to the inclusion of intensively managed permanent pastures, which are not always separable from crops using Landsat data. The abandoned land resulting from shifting cultivation is not included in this category. 1. Two processes contributed to the global cropland NPP increase, namely the increase in cropland area and the increase in crop primary production per unit area. 10, 2844 (2019). 4) increased by 25% between 2003 and 2019 (from 4.4PgCyear1 to 5.5PgCyear1; Fig. The remaining 16% of cropland reduction represented tree plantations or restoration of natural vegetation after cropland abandonment. Countries use different definitions land use. 1 This leaves what we call 'habitable land'. We suggest that, in Russia, where crop abandonment is widespread and not fully documented, the arable land is overestimated by the FAO. | of the area was estimated from the variances of cropland (or cropland dynamics category) class values of pu for sample pixels in each stratum using equation (2). Our World In Data is a project of the Global Change Data Lab, a registered charity in England and Wales (Charity Number 1186433). Agricultural land indicator, along with land-use indicators, can also elucidate the environmental sustainability of countries' agricultural practices. Licenses: All visualizations, data, and articles produced by Our World in Data are open access under the Creative Commons BY license. We used a probability sample, stratified based on the Landsat-based global cropland maps, to estimate cropland area and its associated uncertainty, and to analyse pathways of land-use conversion. Environ. The net loss of arable land area in North America, Europe and north and south-west Asia reported by the FAO was not confirmed by our results. From 2003 to 2019, the global population increased by 21% from 6.4 billion to 7.7 billion21. The original cropland map has a spatial resolution of 0.000250.00025 per pixel, approximately 30m at the Equator. See, L. et al. Environ. Land abandoned as a result of shifting cultivation is excluded. 1). Download scientific diagram | Per Capita Arable Land in Selected Countries, 2005 from publication: India Agricultural Policy Review | With a population of about 1.1 billion, India is expected to . Supplementary Figs. Extent of extensive agriculture Extent of foraging, hunting and gathering Extent of intensive agriculture Extent of pastoralism Global cropland is still increasing Global land use since 10,000 BCE Has agricultural land increased or decreased over the last decade Has the world passed peak agricultural land? Dev. Water Resour. Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter what matters in science, free to your inbox daily. A comparison of our 2003 and 2019 sample-based cropland area estimates with national 2003 and 2018 arable land area reported by the FAO22 (Extended Data Fig. }}\left( {\hat R} \right)\) is the s.e.m. ADS \(s_{yh}^2\) and \(s_{xh}^2\) the sample variances in stratum h; and sxyh the sample covariance in stratum h estimated as follows: The map accuracy metrics include overall accuracy (the proportion of correctly mapped sample pixels), users accuracy of the cropland class (which reflects the cropland class commission) and producers accuracy of the cropland class (which reflects the cropland class omission)42. 7, eabg1620 (2021). We randomly selected 100 sample units (Landsat data pixels) from each stratum (500 samples pixels per region, 3,500 in total). Total Environ. Global indicator framework for the Sustainable Development Goals and targets of the 2030. USA 108, 2026020264 (2011). The current global population is 7.6 billion. The sample analysis showed high accuracy of the global cropland maps with variability between regions and lower accuracies for change dynamics (Table 3). 20 Countries with Highest Rice Consumption Per Capita 20. Our World in Data is free and accessible for everyone. The size of the bubbles reflects regional 2019 cropland area. Global Strategy to Improve Agricultural and Rural Statistics (World Bank, 2011). Arable land (hectares per person) from The World Bank: Data Arable land is defined by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) as land currently used, or potentially capable of being used, to grow seasonal crops. The cropland NPP was evaluated using the globally consistent Collection 6 MODIS-based, annual year-end gap-filled NPP product (MOD17A3HGF20). The per-tile models were then applied to each time interval, and the results were post-processed to remove single cropland class detections and omissions within time-series and eliminate cropland patches <0.5ha. Food and Agriculture Organization. Int. Godfray, H. C. J. et al. and JavaScript. The present study was supported by the National Geographic Society (grant no. In this way, we implemented the criterion of the maximum fallow length: if an area was not used as cropland for >4 years, it was not included in the cropland map for the corresponding time interval. Cropland maps were integrated with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived annual net primary production (NPP)20 as a proxy variable for analysing crop productivity. The Copernicus cropland area is calculated using the proportion of cropland per 100m grid cell resampled to 30m resolution used in this study. Global cropland expansion accelerated over the past two decades, with a near doubling of the annual expansion rate, most notably in Africa. North America Lett. Landsat analysis ready data for global land cover and land cover change mapping. World South America had the largest relative cropland gain (by 37.18.7Mha, or 49%). Google Scholar. Extended Data Fig. This site uses cookies to optimize functionality and give you the best possible experience. Manual masks to remove map artefacts (for example, cropland overestimation over temperate wetlands and flooded grasslands) were applied in some regions to improve the map quality. Observations contaminated by haze, clouds and cloud shadows, as indicated by the Landsat ARD quality layer, were removed from the analysis. ADS Oceania Using probability sample data, we estimated the 2019 global cropland area to be 1,244.262.7Mha (the uncertainty represents the 95% confidence interval (CI)). The largest net cropland increases were found in Brazil (by 23.1Mha, or 77% increase over year 2003 cropland area) and India (by 15.5Mha or 13%). \(\hat X = \mathop {\sum }\limits_{h = 1}^H N_h\bar x_h.\). By the year 2100, each person will be . Locally relevant cropland map time-series enable the monitoring of land-use conversion within high-conservation-value ecosystems and protected areas35. Australia's and the United States' per capita arable land were 26.44 times and t 6.30 times that of China in 2012. So, every 50 years, arable land per capita declines by half. }}\left( {\hat R} \right)\) is the s.e.m. The MODIS-based annual NPP represents a 4-year average within the cropland map for the corresponding time interval. The analysis was performed separately for each of the seven regions outlined in Extended Data Fig. Average 2007-2016 Share this page The NPP gain within stable croplands explains 34% of the total cropland NPP increase from 2003 to 2019. A similar pattern of simultaneous cropland expansion was observed within Sahelian and Central African countries. The cropland map time-series allowed us to disaggregate change over time and conduct national-scale analyses. Data on agricultural land are valuable for conducting studies on a various perspectives concerning agricultural production, food security and for deriving cropping intensity among others uses. 3a) and with 100-m . From 2003 to 2019, global per-capita cropland area decreased by 10% due to population growth. Of the total 2019 cropland area, 217.537.7Mha (17%) represents new cropland established since 2003. Rice Consumption Per Capita: 102.7 kg In south-west and south-east Asia, cropland gain was mostly found in drylands, whereas tree plantations, orchards, aquaculture and urban areas replaced former croplands in China and the Lower Mekong countries. Rural land area where elevation is below 5 meters (% of total land area), Urban land area where elevation is below 5 meters (% of total land area), International Comparison Program & Purchasing Power Parity, International Household Survey Network (IHSN), Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building. Excessive use of chemical fertilizers can alter the chemistry of soil. . 2, 18441863 (2010). }}\left( {\hat O} \right)\) is the s.e.m. | The population data were related to our sample-based (for global and regional estimates) and map-based (for national estimates) cropland area to estimate per-capita cropland area and change. 24, 123140 (1996). The product provides the sum of total daily NPP through the year at a 500-m spatial resolution (kgCm2year1). The two countries with the largest irrigated cropland area were India and China, with about 68 Mha each, followed by the United States (27 Mha), Pakistan (20 Mha) and Iran (9 Mha). Agricultural policies have primarily benefitted farmers with productive land and access to water, bypassing the majority of small-scale producers who are still locked in a poverty trap of high vulnerability, land degradation and climatic uncertainty. Download Historical Data. Non-arable land can sometimes be made arable, for example by removing forests or tilling pasture land. In countries where major economic resources are dependent on agricultural activities, there are few alternative sources of income, or none at all. Sci. 9, 320 (2017). In Africa, cropland expansion accelerated from 20042007 to 20162019, with a more than twofold increase in annual expansion rates. Copernicus Global Land Service: land cover 100m: collection 3: epoch 2019: Globe (V3.0.1) [Data set]. In each region, we selected five strata based on the map time-series corresponding to stable croplands, cropland gain and loss, possible cropland omission area and other lands (Supplementary Tables 2 and 3). 1 and 2 and Tables 14. & DOdorico, P. Water-controlled wealth of nations. Country Arable Land 2016 Arable Land 2015 Arable Land 2014; India: 156463000: 156463000: 156463000: United States: 152262500: 152262500: . How much global land is used as pasture for livestock? The World Bank. Increasing population and demand from other sectors place growing pressure on available resources. Cropland area was mapped for each 4-year interval. Per capita DEFINITION: Arable land (in hectares) includes land defined by the FAO as land under temporary crops (double-cropped areas are counted once), temporary meadows for mowing or for pasture, land under market or kitchen gardens, and land temporarily fallow. The 30-m spatial resolution of the cropland maps supports the analysis of local dynamic factors, for example, cropland abandonment after radioactive contamination following the 2011 nuclear disaster on the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan. Land abandoned as a result of shifting cultivation is excluded. Geocarto Int. Sci. The cropland mapping extent was defined using the geographic 11 grid. 1). https://www.usgs.gov/centers/wgsc/science/global-food-security-support-analysis-data-30-m-gfsad. Trends: Per capita income (GDP) Source: . The estimator of the users accuracy and producers accuracy was then expressed as a ratio estimator (equation (7)) and their s.e.m. The size of the bubbles reflects 2019 regional population. Nat. |. This reduction is due largely to reforestation, soil erosion, and desertification caused by global climate change. 2). Agriculture already uses 11 percent of the world's land surface for crop production. Internet Explorer). Data source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Bank. Global population growth and increasing standards of living inevitably cause the expansion and intensification of global agricultural land use to fulfil growing demands for food, biofuel and other commodities1,2,3. But agricultural activities also can degrade natural resources. We employed the 2019 Revision of World Population Prospects21 to calculate global, regional and national population for years 2003 and 2019. For the net cropland area change, pu had values of 1 (cropland gain), 1 (cropland loss) and 0 (no change). Jarvis A., Reuter H. I., Nelson A. Please consult our full legal disclaimer. Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Extended Data Fig. Description: The map below shows how Arable land (hectares per person) varies by country. Implementation of SDGs to improve food security, protect freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems, and mitigate climate change requires national policies and international cooperation that are based on consistent, independent and timely data on agriculture extent and productivity8,9. Satellite data have been shown to enable national and global agriculture mapping11,12,13,14,15,16,17. Language links are at the top of the page across from the title. Zhao, M., Heinsch, F. A., Nemani, R. R. & Running, S. W. Improvements of the MODIS terrestrial gross and net primary production global data set. Adv. Greenland is the largest country with no arable land, while the smallest nationthe small city-state of Vatican Cityhas none as well. Gibbs, H. K. et al. The pu was defined similarly for the 2019 cropland, stable crop, gross cropland loss and gain classes. Remote Sens. Comparison between 2018 FAO national arable land area22 and 2019 map-based cropland area from this study. DRC stands for the Democratic Republic of the Congo. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Potapov, P. et al. and A.T conducted the sample analysis. A portion (13%) of 2003 cropland was converted to permanent woody crops or aquaculture, with the highest proportion of such transitions in south-east Asia (28%). 10% of the world is covered by glaciers, and a further 19% is barren land - deserts, dry salt flats, beaches, sand dunes, and exposed rocks. India's neighbor Bangladesh is just over 58% arable, earning it the highest percentage of arable land in the world in 2016. Wine . 6). In eastern Europe, the Baltic states and Russias Kaliningrad region featured cropland expansion through recultivation of long fallows abandoned after the breakdown of the USSR, whereas the cropland area in neighbouring Poland and Belarus was relatively stable. This overestimation is partly due to misclassification of pastures as croplands by the Copernicus dataset. Natl Acad. Country boundaries are from GADM (https://gadm.org). Data for "Arable land" are not meant to indicate the amount of land that is potentially cultivable. Lobell, D. B. et al. World Programme for the Census of Agriculture 2010 http://www.fao.org/3/a-a0135e.pdf (UN FAO, 2005). Khan, A. et al. Extended Data Fig. V.Z., A.K., Q.S. Arable land (hectares per person) includes land defined by the FAO as land under temporary crops (double-cropped areas are counted once), temporary meadows for mowing or for pasture, land under market or kitchen gardens, and land temporarily fallow. Several African countries with rapid cropland increase (Angola, Cote dIvoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique and Zambia) and South American countries with industrial export-oriented agricultural expansion (Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay) increased per-capita cropland area. The final global cropland map time-series are available at https://glad.umd.edu/dataset/croplands. Netherlands arable land for 2018 was 1,021,000, a 1.54% decline from 2017. 12, 426 (2020). The FAO arable land change confirms our findings: both datasets demonstrate a net increase in global cropland area, with Africa and South America showing the largest net gains. Regions of analysis. 3 Per-country cropland area comparison with FAO arable land area and Copernicus cropland fraction map. 1, as well as globally. Becker-Reshef, I. et al. Remote Sens. Jaafar, H. H. & Ahmad, F. A. Global maps of cropland extent and change show accelerated cropland expansion in the twenty-first century. nh the sample size (number of sample pixels) in stratum h. The s.e.m. Spatiotemporally consistent data on global cropland extent is essential for tracking progress towards sustainable food production. Half of all habitable land is used for agriculture. In contrast, the per-capita cropland areas and cropland NPP in North America, Europe and north Asia in 2019 were twice the global average. Figure 2. 6 Regional-to-local scale examples of cropland dynamics, 20002019. Crop yield prediction from remotely sensed vegetation indices and primary productivity in arid and semi-arid lands. History, Data Visualization, and the outside world are wonderful, I hope to make more pleasant friends!Subscribing or Feedback would be appreciated!Best regards from China!Sincerely,Data Visible Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. }}\left( {\hat O} \right)\), \(s_{yh}^2 = \mathop {\sum }\limits_{u \in h} \left( {y_u - \bar y_h} \right)^2/(n_h - 1).\), $$\hat R = \frac{{\mathop {\sum }\nolimits_{h = 1}^H N_h\bar y_h}}{{\mathop {\sum }\nolimits_{h = 1}^H N_h\bar x_h}} \times 100$$, $${\mathrm{s.e. 2 Comparison of FAO arable land area estimates with sample-based cropland area by region. For the producers accuracy, we defined yu=1 if sample pixel u is correctly mapped as cropland, otherwise yu=0, and xu=1 if sample pixel u is interpreted as cropland, otherwise xu=0. "In 1960, when the world population numbered only 3 billion, approximately 0.5 hectare of cropland per capita was available, the minimum area considered essential for the production of a diverse, healthy, nutritious diet of plant and animal products like that enjoyed widely in the United States and Europe." Comparison of FAO arable land area estimates22 with sample-based cropland area by region. Source: Food and Agriculture Organization, electronic files and web site. High-resolution, satellite-based synoptic data on cropland extent and change provide the basis for tracking progress towards sustainable food production and reduction of the environmental impact of agriculture expansion, as well as for applying crop condition monitoring to support decision-making33. where \(\hat A\) is the estimated cropland/cropland change area, \(\bar p_h = \frac{{\mathop {\sum }\nolimits_{u \in h} p_u}}{{n_h}}\)the mean cropland/cropland change proportion of samples in stratum h; and. North and South America, which are dominated by large-scale industrial farming, have the highest accuracies. A System of Integrated Agricultural Censuses and Surveys Vol. Article 1). calculated using equation (8), which are similar to equations (3) and (4), except that the strata were weighted by their total number of pixels (Nh) rather than the areas (Ah) for the purposes of map accuracy assessment (with pixel being the primary mapping unit): where \(\hat R\) is the estimated users/producers accuracy, expressed as a percentage. Breiman, L. Bagging predictors. for overall accuracy is computed using equation (6). Definition: Arable land (hectares per person) includes land defined by the FAO as land under temporary crops (double-cropped areas are counted once), temporary meadows for mowing or for pasture, land under market or kitchen gardens, and land temporarily fallow. In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles I. Classification training data (cropland class presence and absence) were manually selected through visual interpretation of Landsat metric composites and high-resolution data from Google Earth. Res. Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. . Science 309, 570574 (2005). Global impacts of future cropland expansion and intensification on agricultural markets and biodiversity. Land resources are central to agriculture and rural development, and are intrinsically linked to global challenges of food insecurity and poverty, climate change adaptation and mitigation, as well as degradation and depletion of natural resources that affect the livelihoods of millions of rural people across the world. To estimate overall accuracy, we defined yu=1 if pixel u is classified correctly and yu=0 if pixel u is classified incorrectly. Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s. 28 Jun 2023 09:20:46 The other half of cropland expansion (51%) was due to pasture conversion and recultivation of abandoned arable land. designed the research and performed the global mapping. True comparability of the data is limited, by variations in definitions, statistical methods, and quality of data. a. The 95% CI was obtained by multiplying s.e.m. As the regional models applied at the second stage were calibrated using 20162019 data alone, classification errors may arise due to Landsat data inconsistencies before 2016. 7864). | where \({\mathrm{s.e. Of the global cropland area, 55% is in Eurasia, 17% in Africa, 16% in North and Central America, 9% in South America and 3% in Australia and New Zealand (Table 1; see Extended Data Fig. The authors declare no competing interests. Changes in total and per-capita mapped cropland area from 2003 to 2019 demonstrate the variability of national responses to the need for increased food production to feed a growing population (Extended Data Fig. | The global cropland maps for 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019, cropland dynamic maps (net cropland gain and loss) and sample data are publicly available from https://glad.umd.edu/dataset/croplands. We used average annual NPP for each 4-year interval, except for the 20002003 interval, where a 3-year average was used instead to avoid using the year 2000 when MODIS data were incomplete. Boryan, C., Yang, Z., Mueller, R. & Craig, M. Monitoring US agriculture: the US Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, cropland data layer program. Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA, Peter Potapov,Svetlana Turubanova,Matthew C. Hansen,Alexandra Tyukavina,Viviana Zalles,Ahmad Khan,Amy Pickens&Quan Shen, Department of Geosciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, USA, Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigaciones y Estudios sobre Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo, Instituto Politcnico Nacional, Ciudad de Mxico, Mxico, You can also search for this author in List of countries by real population density based on food growing capacity, estimated by dividing the value in the "2016 arable land" column by 2016 population, estimated from other values in the World Bank database ("2016 hectares per person""2016 population", "2016% arable""2016 sq km", or just sum the arable land of all of the individual countries), Learn how and when to remove this template message, "World Bank: Arable land (hectares per person)", "CIA - The World Factbook -- Rank Order - Area", "World Bank: Arable land (% of land area)", "Physiologic Population Density for Each of the World's States, Year 2000", Arable land (hectares per person) (worldbank.org), Current real density based on food growing capacity, Antiviral medications for pandemic influenza, Percentage suffering from undernourishment, Health expenditure by country by type of financing, Programme for International Student Assessment, Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies, Progress in International Reading Literacy Study, Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_countries_by_real_population_density_based_on_food_growing_capacity&oldid=1143913621, Short description is different from Wikidata, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 4.0, This page was last edited on 10 March 2023, at 17:27.
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